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The case for Dallas covering begins with its offense. The Cowboys average 27 points per game, ranking fifth in the NFL, and meet an Arizona defense yielding 29.7 points per game. Dallas recently posted 38 points against Philadelphia, with Dak Prescott completing three touchdown passes. A balanced attack should help Dallas create separation against Arizona. Javonte Williams rushed for 155 yards last week, while Arizona permits roughly 126 rushing yards per game. If Dallas esta

The biggest factor to this Under is Orlando’s offense. The Magic enter this matchup without Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs, removing two of their most important shot creators and ball handlers. Orlando has consequently been one of the least efficient offensive teams in basketball, ranking near the bottom of the NBA in offensive rating while averaging only around 107 points per game. That is an especially difficult matchup against a Toronto defense that has been dominant early

I’m backing the Under 47.5 tonight because this matchup sets up better for a controlled, lower-possession game than a shootout. The biggest reason starts with Green Bay’s defense against Bryce Young. Young has been pressured on 44.3% of his dropbacks when opponents rush four or fewer defenders, the highest rate among qualified quarterbacks, and 15 of his 17 sacks have come in those situations. That lines up perfectly with a Packers defense generating pressure on 38.5% of oppo

The case for the under starts with New Mexico State’s run defense. The Aggies allow just 109.1 rushing yards per game, creating a difficult matchup for Jacksonville State’s run heavy offense. If they can limit rushing efficiency and force longer third downs, the Gamecocks will have to work through extended possessions to generate points. On the other side, Jacksonville State limits quick scores. They allowed just 19 plays of 20-plus yards, the lowest in Conference USA. That m

I love the Under 7 tonight in Game 3 of the World Series because this matchup sets up as a pitching-first game with two starters who have been dominant throughout October. Tampa Bay sends Freddy Peralta to the mound, and he enters tonight with a 2-0 record and 1.08 ERA this postseason. He has allowed only two earned runs across 16.2 playoff innings, and Tampa Bay has won every one of his postseason starts. With the Rays down 0-2 in the series, I expect Peralta to get a longer

I like the Rams laying the short number against Las Vegas. This is a spot where I believe the overall matchup favors Los Angeles much more than the records suggest. The biggest advantage is Matthew Stafford and the Rams passing attack against the Raiders secondary. Los Angeles entered the matchup ranked 3rd in total offense and 2nd in passing offense at 288.7 passing yards per game, while Las Vegas was just 24th against the pass and 28th in total defense. Even with injuries o

I like the Over 50.5 tonight in a matchup featuring two offenses trending in the right direction and two young quarterbacks capable of creating explosive plays. The biggest reason is Drake Maye and the Patriots offense. New England struggled offensively early in the season, but over its last three games the Patriots have averaged 33.3 points per game, with Maye throwing 10 touchdowns against just one interception during that stretch. Chicago's defense has also been vulnerable

I’m backing another low-scoring game between Tampa Bay and Cleveland tonight. A total of 6.5 doesn’t give us much room for error, but this matchup has several things pointing toward another game decided in the 2-1, 3-2 or 3-1 range. The biggest reason I like the Under is Nick Martinez against Cleveland. Martinez quietly had an excellent season with a 3.10 ERA, and this is a lineup he has already dominated. In two regular-season starts against the Guardians, Martinez threw 13

I’m backing Guardians/Rays Under 6.5 runs tonight. The biggest reason is the starting pitching matchup. Tampa Bay sends Freddy Peralta to the mound, and he enters Game 2 with a 1.93 postseason ERA and 0.86 WHIP. He’s been especially sharp since joining Tampa Bay, and Cleveland is facing a much different challenge than the Rays bullpen they were able to get to late in Game 1. On the other side, Parker Messick gives Cleveland a great chance to control Tampa Bay's lineup. His 5.

I like the Rams to win this game by more than a field goal tonight. Buffalo is obviously dangerous with Josh Allen, but this is a tough matchup for a Bills team dealing with some significant injuries, especially against a Rams offense that has the personnel to attack Buffalo's biggest weakness. The biggest advantage for Los Angeles is Stafford against this Buffalo secondary. The Bills have allowed 256.2 passing yards per game and 10 passing touchdowns through four games, and

Green Bay Packers +1.5 (-110) This is one of my favorite spots on the board because I believe Green Bay has the most important advantage in this matchup: Jordan Love against a Chicago defense that plays directly into his strengths. With the Packers catching +1.5 at Lambeau Field, I think Green Bay has an excellent chance not only to cover the number but to win this game outright. Jordan Love is the Biggest Mismatch The quarterback difference is where this handicap starts. Chi

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys — Under 49.5 The biggest reason I liked the Under was Tampa Bay’s quarterback situation. Baker Mayfield was ruled out with a thumb injury, leaving rookie Jalon Daniels to make just his second NFL start. Tampa Bay had already been one of the league’s least efficient offenses through four weeks, scoring fewer than 20 points in every game. With a rookie quarterback on the road, the Bucs had every reason to protect him with a conservative, run-heavy game pl

The strongest argument for the Under starts with Clay Holmes, who has quietly developed into one of Chicago’s most reliable starters. Holmes enters today with a 2.09 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and his current form has been even better. Over his last four starts, Holmes has surrendered just one earned run across 25 innings, including back-to-back scoreless outings against Arizona and Milwaukee. His elite ground-ball profile is particularly important against Miami: Holmes has generated

I like the Under 9 tonight in Houston, with several indicators pointing toward a lower-scoring game than the starting pitchers’ season-long ERAs might suggest. Merrill Kelly is coming off his best start of the season. The veteran right-hander threw 7 scoreless innings against San Francisco, allowing only two singles while striking out seven. He generated 13 swings and misses on 100 pitches, including six with his changeup, giving him some encouraging momentum entering this ga

There is a strong case for a lower-scoring game at Fenway despite the first two games of this series producing plenty of offense. Patrick Sandoval has been better than his 4.20 ERA suggests recently. The Boston left-hander has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, including 5.1 innings of one-run ball against the Yankees in his most recent outing. Seattle is also an excellent matchup for him. Over the past 30 days, the Mariners are averaging only 3

Sean Burke enters this game with a a 3.32 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 161 strikeouts across 149 innings, good for a 26.3% strikeout rate. His most recent outing was shaky from a command standpoint, but his season-long profile has been significantly better than that one start suggests. If Burke gets back to attacking the zone, he has the swing-and-miss ability to keep Houston in check. The Astros have produced at an above-average level since the All-Star break, but they don’t necessari

The strongest case for the Under starts with Ian Seymour against a struggling Mets offense. Seymour has settled into the Rays’ rotation nicely, posting a 3.77 ERA with 38 strikeouts and only four walks over his last five appearances. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all five of those outings, including one run over six innings against Seattle and two runs over six at Coors Field. His ability to miss bats while limiting free passes gives New York fewer opportunitie

I like Under 9 in this afternoon’s Rockies-Braves matchup at Truist Park. Despite Colorado’s pitching change, there are several reasons this game can stay in the 4-3 or 5-3 range. Martin Perez gives Atlanta a strong chance to suppress Colorado’s side of the total. Perez enters with a 3.12 ERA and has been particularly effective in August, posting a 1.80 ERA across five starts while allowing only one home run in 25 innings. His best pitch has been his changeup, against which h

The pitching ERAs make this matchup look like an automatic Over, but there are several reasons the Under 9.5 has value. Colorado starts Gabriel Hughes, whose 6.54 ERA is ugly on the surface, but his underlying numbers are dramatically better. Hughes owns a 3.47 xERA and 3.86 FIP, while ranking in the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate and 91st percentile in average exit velocity. That suggests significant positive regression and gives him a better chance of limiting Washington

Under 8.5 is supported by a strong starting-pitching setup, particularly with Eduardo Rodríguez on the mound for Arizona. Rodriguez enters with a 13-4 record and 2.61 ERA and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 20 of his 26 starts this season. He’s also coming off 5.2 scoreless innings against Cincinnati and has worked at least five innings in six straight starts. That ability to limit damage and pitch deep into games gives Arizona a legitimate chance to keep a dangerous