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The strongest argument for the Under starts with Clay Holmes, who has quietly developed into one of Chicago’s most reliable starters. Holmes enters today with a 2.09 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and his current form has been even better. Over his last four starts, Holmes has surrendered just one earned run across 25 innings, including back-to-back scoreless outings against Arizona and Milwaukee. His elite ground-ball profile is particularly important against Miami: Holmes has generated

I like the Under 9 tonight in Houston, with several indicators pointing toward a lower-scoring game than the starting pitchers’ season-long ERAs might suggest. Merrill Kelly is coming off his best start of the season. The veteran right-hander threw 7 scoreless innings against San Francisco, allowing only two singles while striking out seven. He generated 13 swings and misses on 100 pitches, including six with his changeup, giving him some encouraging momentum entering this ga

There is a strong case for a lower-scoring game at Fenway despite the first two games of this series producing plenty of offense. Patrick Sandoval has been better than his 4.20 ERA suggests recently. The Boston left-hander has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, including 5.1 innings of one-run ball against the Yankees in his most recent outing. Seattle is also an excellent matchup for him. Over the past 30 days, the Mariners are averaging only 3

Sean Burke enters this game with a a 3.32 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 161 strikeouts across 149 innings, good for a 26.3% strikeout rate. His most recent outing was shaky from a command standpoint, but his season-long profile has been significantly better than that one start suggests. If Burke gets back to attacking the zone, he has the swing-and-miss ability to keep Houston in check. The Astros have produced at an above-average level since the All-Star break, but they don’t necessari

The strongest case for the Under starts with Ian Seymour against a struggling Mets offense. Seymour has settled into the Rays’ rotation nicely, posting a 3.77 ERA with 38 strikeouts and only four walks over his last five appearances. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all five of those outings, including one run over six innings against Seattle and two runs over six at Coors Field. His ability to miss bats while limiting free passes gives New York fewer opportunitie

I like Under 9 in this afternoon’s Rockies-Braves matchup at Truist Park. Despite Colorado’s pitching change, there are several reasons this game can stay in the 4-3 or 5-3 range. Martin Perez gives Atlanta a strong chance to suppress Colorado’s side of the total. Perez enters with a 3.12 ERA and has been particularly effective in August, posting a 1.80 ERA across five starts while allowing only one home run in 25 innings. His best pitch has been his changeup, against which h

The pitching ERAs make this matchup look like an automatic Over, but there are several reasons the Under 9.5 has value. Colorado starts Gabriel Hughes, whose 6.54 ERA is ugly on the surface, but his underlying numbers are dramatically better. Hughes owns a 3.47 xERA and 3.86 FIP, while ranking in the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate and 91st percentile in average exit velocity. That suggests significant positive regression and gives him a better chance of limiting Washington

Under 8.5 is supported by a strong starting-pitching setup, particularly with Eduardo Rodríguez on the mound for Arizona. Rodriguez enters with a 13-4 record and 2.61 ERA and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 20 of his 26 starts this season. He’s also coming off 5.2 scoreless innings against Cincinnati and has worked at least five innings in six straight starts. That ability to limit damage and pitch deep into games gives Arizona a legitimate chance to keep a dangerous

Sonny Gray is the main reason the Under 7.5 is live. The Red Sox ace is having one of the best seasons of his career against a Marlins lineup that has not shown much power, in a pitcher-friendly park. Gray is 16-3 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 138.2 innings. He has 123 strikeouts and has been Boston’s clear ace with Garrett Crochet sidelined. Career numbers against the Marlins are strong (3-1, 2.81 ERA in seven appearances). He's coming off a horrible game (4 ER in 6 IP vs

The biggest reason to back the Under tonight is Aaron Nola’s recent turnaround. His 5.12 season ERA doesn’t tell the full story of how well he has pitched lately. Over his last five starts, Nola owns a 2.51 ERA with 34 strikeouts across 28.2 innings, and he is coming off seven innings of one-run baseball against Miami with eight strikeouts and zero walks. He has allowed only eight earned runs total over those five starts! Seattle’s lineup also isn’t as deep as it normally wou

Cristopher Sanchez is the biggest reason to like the Under. The Phillies lefty enters at 16-4 with a 2.51 ERA, 2.61 FIP and an excellent 22.1% K-BB rate. His 57.6% ground-ball rate is especially valuable at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park because it limits damaging fly balls and home runs. Sanchez has dominated this Cardinals lineup. Current St. Louis hitters have managed only a .179 batting average, .256 slugging percentage and .225 wOBA against him across 42 plate appear

We witnessed the low-scoring nature of this matchup on Friday night when Miami emerged victorious in the series opener with a 3-2 win. Given the trend, I predict another pitchers duel this afternoon. Washington has now struggled offensively in several recent games, including being held to one hit in a 2-0 loss to Texas immediately before this series. Their lineup isn’t nearly as intimidating right now as its full-season numbers suggest. The Nationals have been dealing with in

I love the Under 8.5 in Friday night’s Rays-Orioles matchup, with Trevor Rogers giving Baltimore a strong chance to keep Tampa Bay’s offense under control. Rogers’ full-season 4.15 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story. He's been significantly better over the last few months, posting a 2.41 ERA across 12 starts since June 1. He also just faced this same Rays lineup five days ago and held them to two earned runs over six innings with six strikeouts and only one walk. This matchup i

Despite the first two games of this series producing 15 and 13 runs, I like the Under 7.5 in Thursday’s finale because the starting-pitching matchup is much better suited for a lower-scoring game. Tampa Bay sends Ian Seymour to the mound, and his recent form has been much stronger than his 4.11 season ERA suggests. Seymour has allowed only 8 earned runs over his last 28.2 innings, completing at least six innings in four of his last five starts while striking out 36 hitters du

Citi Field’s pitcher-friendly environment, Michael King’s reliability, middling offenses (especially a depleted Mets lineup), and the series low-scoring pattern support the Under 8.5. Michael King is the clear pitching advantage for San Diego, entering at 8-8 with a 3.41 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 124 strikeouts across 142.1 innings. He has consistently given the Padres competitive outings and recently delivered six innings of one-run ball against Houston. Even when he allows some t

I love the Under 8 in tonight’s Crosstown Classic because this matchup has a much better pitching setup than the season-long numbers initially suggest. The biggest reason is Shota Imanaga. He enters with a 3.74 ERA and an excellent 1.10 WHIP over 137.1 innings, but his recent form has been even more impressive. Over his last seven starts, Imanaga owns a 2.31 ERA with 38 strikeouts against only six walks in 39 innings. His command is important in a total this tight because he

I like the Under 8 in today’s Orioles-Rays matchup because this game has a good chance to be dictated by starting pitching and another round of inefficient offense. Baltimore sends Trevor Rogers to the mound with a 7-8 record, 4.21 ERA and 102 strikeouts, while Tampa Bay counters with Freddy Peralta, who has 121 strikeouts in 2026. Rogers’ season numbers are relatively ordinary, but his recent performances give me confidence that he can keep Tampa Bay from putting together a

I like the Under 7.5 in this matchup because both starting pitchers are positioned to control the game, and Baltimore draws a particularly difficult matchup against Rays left-hander Ian Seymour. Seymour has quietly settled into Tampa Bay’s rotation and enters this game in excellent form. He has allowed only three earned runs across 12 innings in August while striking out 16, including six innings of one-run baseball with seven strikeouts against Seattle in his last start. Sin

This game has all the ingredients for an Under. Clay Holmes’ ability to suppress runs, combined with favorable conditions at Wrigley Field, sets up well for a lower-scoring matchup. Holmes enters with a 2.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while allowing just four home runs across 56.2 innings. His sinker-heavy arsenal has also produced a 57.9% ground-ball rate, exactly the type of profile I want when backing an Under at Wrigley. St. Louis draws a difficult matchup against Holmes as well.

I like the Under 8.5 in this afternoon matchup at Oracle Park, where the environment immediately works in our favor. Statcast’s 2026 park factors have Oracle at just 88 for runs and 74 for home runs, making it one of the more pitcher-friendly environments in baseball this season. With temperatures sitting in the mid-to-upper 60s around first pitch, this isn’t the type of setting where I expect the ball to carry. Houston’s offense also comes into this game in a noticeable down