Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals (4:45pm)

The Diamondbacks and Cardinals have enough offensive talent to scare people away from an Under, but this total sitting at 9 gives us a strong number to work with. Busch Stadium is not playing like a launching pad tonight, and with humid, heavy air plus light wind, fly balls should have a harder time carrying. That matters in a matchup where both teams will likely need extra-base hits or a big inning to push this game over the number.

Michael McGreevy is the biggest reason to trust the Under. He has been one of the more reliable arms for St. Louis this season, carrying a strong ERA and WHIP while doing a good job limiting free baserunners. He is not a pitcher who needs to dominate with strikeouts to be effective; he works ahead, forces contact, and gives the Cardinals a chance to control the pace early.

While Zac Gallen’s season-long numbers have been ugly, he’s still a veteran arm with a deep pitch mix and enough experience to settle into a cleaner outing. The Cardinals have been swinging the bats well lately, but the total of 9 gives us some breathing room for moderate traffic. More importantly, Gallen has historically been effective against St. Louis, posting a 3.91 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 23 innings. If he can avoid the big crooked innings and keep the Cardinals from turning singles and walks into rallies, this game should stay well under the total.

The key here is run prevention early. If both starters can get through the first five innings without major damage, this total becomes much harder to clear. With the weather not helping power, McGreevy in solid form, and Gallen capable of a bounce-back performance in a better run-suppressing environment, this matchup sets up better for a 4-3 or 5-3 type game than a true shootout.

I like the Diamondbacks/Cardinals game to stay Under 9 runs.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 9 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!

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