exclusivevipsports

The strongest argument for the Under starts with Clay Holmes, who has quietly developed into one of Chicago’s most reliable starters. Holmes enters today with a 2.09 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and his current form has been even better. Over his last four starts, Holmes has surrendered just one earned run across 25 innings, including back-to-back scoreless outings against Arizona and Milwaukee. His elite ground-ball profile is particularly important against Miami: Holmes has generated a 65.2%...

I like the Under 9 tonight in Houston, with several indicators pointing toward a lower-scoring game than the starting pitchers’ season-long ERAs might suggest. Merrill Kelly is coming off his best start of the season. The veteran right-hander threw 7 scoreless innings against San Francisco, allowing only two singles while striking out seven. He generated 13 swings and misses on 100 pitches, including six with his changeup, giving him some encouraging momentum entering this game. Houston’s...

There is a strong case for a lower-scoring game at Fenway despite the first two games of this series producing plenty of offense. Patrick Sandoval has been better than his 4.20 ERA suggests recently. The Boston left-hander has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, including 5.1 innings of one-run ball against the Yankees in his most recent outing. Seattle is also an excellent matchup for him. Over the past 30 days, the Mariners are averaging only 3.6 runs per game...