Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees (4:05pm)

The Under 8 is attractive here because both offenses enter with reasons to struggle against the opposing starter. Pittsburgh faces left-hander Ryan Weathers, and the Pirates have had significant issues against left-handed pitching on the road this season. Weathers also comes off an encouraging start in which he allowed just one run over 5.1 innings with six strikeouts, giving him a favorable matchup to limit Pittsburgh early.

The stronger pitching edge comes from Pittsburgh starter Braxton Ashcraft. The 2026 All-Star enters with a 3.49 ERA and 128 strikeouts across 113.1 innings, and the Yankees are expected to be without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. That removes two of New York’s biggest power threats and gives Ashcraft a much more manageable version of this lineup.

New York’s offense has also been quiet recently, scoring only five total runs across its three-game series against the Dodgers. With Ashcraft capable of working deep into the game and generating strikeouts, another limited offensive performance is more than likely tonight.

The most likely game script is a relatively controlled first six innings, with Ashcraft keeping New York’s depleted lineup in check while Weathers takes advantage of Pittsburgh’s struggles against lefties. Neither side needs to be completely shut down for this total to stay under. I have this handicapped at 7 runs combined.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 8 (-120)

🍀Best of luck!

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