Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants (1:05pm)

The Over 7.5 is the play in the Tigers/Giants series finale, even with Troy Melton entering in excellent form. The number is low enough that we don’t need both starting pitchers to get hit hard. A 5-3 or 6-2 type of game gets us there, and Detroit’s offense plus San Francisco’s horrible bullpen creates multiple ways for us to get eight runs.

Detroit’s offense is the biggest reason to attack this total. The Tigers are coming off an 8-0 victory Saturday in which they collected 10 hits and exploded for six runs in the seventh inning. Detroit has now won six of eight on its current Western road trip, and its lineup showed Saturday that it can manufacture runs even when the opposing starter pitches well early. Logan Webb is still a quality starter, but he has been much more hittable this season. Webb endured an extremely rough July, allowing 19 earned runs across 22⅔ innings in four starts. That stretch included outings of five, seven and four earned runs. He did rebound with six scoreless innings in his most recent start, but one strong performance doesn’t completely erase the volatility we’ve seen over the previous month.

Detroit also has the type of lineup capable of creating problems for Webb without relying solely on home runs. Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson and the rest of this Tigers order can extend innings and create traffic on the bases. We saw exactly that Saturday, when Detroit remained patient, drew walks and eventually broke the game open after getting into San Francisco’s bullpen.

That bullpen is another major reason I like the Over. San Francisco has dealt with significant late-inning issues this season, to the point that the organization publicly discussed adding bullpen help before the trade deadline. Those problems resurfaced Saturday when the Tigers turned a close game into a blowout against Giants relievers. San Francisco is also evaluating younger arms down the stretch, which increases the potential for command problems, walks and big innings once Webb exits.

This play is less about fading Melton or Webb but more about attacking a low 7.5 total. Detroit is swinging the bat well, while Logan Webb hasn’t looked like the dominant ace we’ve seen in years past and has shown more volatility than usual this season. If San Francisco can simply contribute two or three runs, Detroit has a very realistic chance to do most of the heavy lifting needed to push this game Over the total.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Over 7.5 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!

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