Boston Red Sox vs Athletics (6:40pm)

The strongest argument for the over is that Boston may be capable of doing most of the scoring itself. Athletics starter Gage Jump enters with a 4.42 ERA, while Oakland’s pitching staff has allowed 5.65 runs per game. That is a difficult matchup against a Boston offense averaging 4.21 runs and producing a strong .768 OPS against left-handed pitching.

Gage Jump will also be facing Boston for the first time. That unfamiliarity can occasionally favor a pitcher early, but his overall run-prevention numbers suggest the Red Sox should create traffic once the lineup turns over. Boston has been one of baseball’s hottest teams, going 8-2 over its previous 10 games and 17-3 over its previous 20, giving the lineup considerable momentum entering this matchup.

Jake Bennett’s 2.58 ERA is the biggest concern for the over, but his modest 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings means he relies heavily on contact and defense. Oakland does not necessarily need to chase him early; a few singles, walks or home runs could produce three or four runs and leave Boston needing six or seven against Jump and the Athletics’ bullpen.

Oakland’s bullpen provides another way to get over this high posted total. In the series opener, the Athletics carried a lead into the sixth inning before their relief corps loaded the bases and surrendered a grand slam. Even if Jump delivers four or five competitive innings, Boston should have opportunities to add runs against a staff that has struggled to prevent big innings. The hitting environment is favorable as well.

Temperatures in West Sacramento are forecast to remain around 80°F near the beginning of the game after reaching the mid-90s earlier in the day. Warm conditions generally help the baseball travel and can turn well-struck fly balls into extra-base hits or home runs.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Over 10 (-115)

🍀Best of luck!

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