Washington Commanders vs Kansas City Chiefs (5:15pm)

The Overs are 9-3 in the NFL this week, and the public is once again betting on the Over for the Commanders/Chiefs game. The betting public’s heavy support indicates that this is the only game for MNF, which means there will be a significant amount of liability on the Over for the bookmakers. This presents us with a great opportunity to fade the public and be on the side of the sportsbooks.

Kansas City, fresh off a 31-0 rout of Las Vegas, could see a similar lopsided score in tonight’s game against Washington. The Commanders will start Marcus Mariota again in place of Jayden Daniels. Washington will also be without starting receivers Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel again leaving them short on scoring options.

I have this game handicapped in the 42-45 point range, which gives us significant value on the Under at the current odds (u48 -110). The Chiefs are likely to dominate this game early and probably just run out the clock, similar to their last games against the Raiders, where they ran 12 consecutive running plays to end the game.

The Chiefs are 9-0 to the Under since October 2022 at home after scoring atleast 28 points in their previous game.

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Pick: Under 48 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!

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