Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks (12:40pm)

Under 8.5 is supported by a strong starting-pitching setup, particularly with Eduardo Rodríguez on the mound for Arizona. Rodriguez enters with a 13-4 record and 2.61 ERA and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 20 of his 26 starts this season. He’s also coming off 5.2 scoreless innings against Cincinnati and has worked at least five innings in six straight starts. That ability to limit damage and pitch deep into games gives Arizona a legitimate chance to keep a dangerous Cubs lineup in the 2-4 run range.

Matthew Boyd's overall 4.15 ERA doesn't tell the whole story. His road numbers have been considerably better, carrying a 2.57 ERA across 42 road innings while allowing only two home runs. That is especially important at Chase Field, where keeping the ball in the park can prevent Arizona from putting together the crooked innings needed to threaten an 8.5 total.

Arizona's offense has also had difficulty generating sustained production in this series. The Diamondbacks were shut out 7-0 in Monday's opener and were held scoreless with only two hits through seven innings Tuesday before Chicago's bullpen collapsed late. Arizona's five runs Tuesday therefore make the offense look better than it performed for most of the game. The D-Backs have been largely contained by Cubs starting pitching through the first two games.

The biggest concern is Chicago's bullpen after allowing five late runs Tuesday, but a longer Boyd outing would reduce that exposure. On the other side, Rodriguez gives Arizona a strong chance to prevent Chicago from doing most of the heavy lifting toward the total. With both starters capable of getting through five-plus innings and Arizona's bats struggling to create consistent offense in this matchup, a game in the 4-3 or 5-3 range is very realistic, making Under 8.5 the play.

(3x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 8.5 (-110)

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