Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins (3:40pm)

Sonny Gray is the main reason the Under 7.5 is live. The Red Sox ace is having one of the best seasons of his career against a Marlins lineup that has not shown much power, in a pitcher-friendly park.

Gray is 16-3 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 138.2 innings. He has 123 strikeouts and has been Boston’s clear ace with Garrett Crochet sidelined. Career numbers against the Marlins are strong (3-1, 2.81 ERA in seven appearances). He's coming off a horrible game (4 ER in 6 IP vs. San Francisco), but the overall body of work is elite. Against a Miami lineup that has already struggled to consistently cash in scoring opportunities during this series, Gray is capable of holding the Marlins around 1-2 runs.

Gusto's overall 4.37 ERA doesn't tell the entire story. He has been much more competitive recently, allowing two earned runs or fewer in four consecutive starts, including four scoreless innings against Washington in his latest appearance and one earned run across six innings against Atlanta earlier this month. He is not an ace, yet he does not have to be if Gray dominates. A 3-2 or 4-2 type game is well within range.

loanDepot park also provides one of the better environments for an Under. Statcast's 2026 park factors have Miami's stadium at roughly a 95-96 overall run-scoring index, placing it among MLB's more pitcher-friendly parks. Home runs and extra-base damage are generally more difficult here than at a neutral offensive park, which matters against a Boston offense capable of producing runs quickly.

The first two games of this series have also been much lower scoring than Tuesday's 7-3 final suggests. Monday finished 4-2, while Tuesday required extra innings and a Jarren Duran grand slam in the 11th to reach ten combined runs. That game was still only 3-3 before Boston's four-run 11th, showing how difficult sustained offense has been in this matchup. I have this game handicapped at 7 runs giving us a slight edge.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)

🍀Best of luck!

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