Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners (6:40pm)

The biggest reason to back the Under tonight is Aaron Nola’s recent turnaround. His 5.12 season ERA doesn’t tell the full story of how well he has pitched lately. Over his last five starts, Nola owns a 2.51 ERA with 34 strikeouts across 28.2 innings, and he is coming off seven innings of one-run baseball against Miami with eight strikeouts and zero walks. He has allowed only eight earned runs total over those five starts!

Seattle’s lineup also isn’t as deep as it normally would be. The Mariners enter tonight without several hitters, including J.P. Crawford, Colt Emerson, Brendan Donovan and Luke Raley. Despite Monday night’s 9-2 explosion, Seattle is averaging only 3.95 runs per game for the season, and that breakout was driven heavily by an unusual five-homer performance, including three from Cal Raleigh.

George Kirby is the obvious concern for the Under, especially after allowing 11 earned runs over his last two starts. But there is still upside for a bounce-back performance at home. Two starts before those blowups, Kirby held Tampa Bay to one run over five innings and Minnesota scoreless over seven. His overall 4.19 ERA is much more respectable than his recent five-start number, and pitching at T-Mobile Park gives him one of the best environments in baseball to rebound.

Monday’s 9-2 result creates some recency bias toward another high-scoring game, but the pitching matchup and run environment are different tonight. With Nola pitching his best baseball of the season, Seattle’s lineup missing multiple pieces, Kirby getting a pitcher-friendly home environment to rebound, I see a much more controlled game.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 8 (-120)

🍀Best of luck!

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