UT Arlington vs Stanford (7:00pm)

Why the Stanford vs UT Arlington game will stay Under 139 points tonight!

1. UT Arlington's Stingy Defense Sets a Low-Scoring Tone

​The Mavericks have built their solid 7-3 record on outstanding defense. They allow just 63.8 points per game, one of the strongest marks among mid-major programs. Opponents shoot only around 47% against them, and UTA's ability to clog the paint and limit easy baskets consistently keeps games low-scoring. On the road against a Power conference team like Stanford, expect the Mavericks to lean even harder into this identity—slowing the tempo, contesting shots, and forcing tough looks. Stanford averages a respectable 81.9 points per game, but facing one of the nation's top defenses in points allowed will likely cap their output well below that mark.

2. Slow Pace Means Fewer Possessions

Tempo will be a major factor here. According to advanced metrics, UT Arlington plays at one of the slower paces in college basketball (ranked 291st in adjusted tempo) per KenPom rankings. Fewer possessions naturally lead to fewer points. Stanford, under head coach Kyle Smith (formerly of Washington State, where his teams were known for deliberate, defensive-minded play), isn't a run-and-gun squad either. The Cardinal rank respectably in defensive efficiency and prefer to grind out games rather than push the pace. This stylistic clash should result in a deliberate, half-court battle with limited transition opportunities.

3. Offensive Limitations on Both Sides

UT Arlington's offense is solid but not explosive, averaging 74.3 points per game. On the road against Stanford's improving defense (allowing 72.2 points per game), the Mavericks could easily be held in the mid-60s or lower. Stanford should win comfortably, but blowouts against strong defensive teams rarely turn into shootouts. Even in a projected 12-15 point victory, the combined score figures to land in the 130-135 range.

Final Thoughts: This matchup screams "Under." Elite defense from UT Arlington, combined with a slow pace and Stanford's defensive approach under Kyle Smith, sets up a gritty, low-possession game. Add in UTA's recent under trend, and 139.5 feels several points too high. Betting trends strongly support the under. The total has gone under in five straight UT Arlington games. Their games average around 138-140 combined points this season, aligning almost perfectly with tonight's low total. While Stanford's games have averaged higher (around 154 points), those numbers are inflated by matchups against bad defenses. Against a disciplined unit like UTA's, I predict Stanford might struggle to reach their season scoring average. Take the Under with full confidence.

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Pick: Under 139 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!

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