Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians (5:00pm)

I’m backing another low-scoring game between Tampa Bay and Cleveland tonight. A total of 6.5 doesn’t give us much room for error, but this matchup has several things pointing toward another game decided in the 2-1, 3-2 or 3-1 range.

The biggest reason I like the Under is Nick Martinez against Cleveland. Martinez quietly had an excellent season with a 3.10 ERA, and this is a lineup he has already dominated. In two regular-season starts against the Guardians, Martinez threw 13 scoreless innings, including seven shutout innings at Progressive Field. He doesn’t need to overpower hitters to be effective! He limits walks, changes speeds and forces hitters to string together multiple quality at-bats to score.

Cleveland is countering with Shawn Armstrong as the opener, with Joey Cantillo expected to be one of the primary bulk options behind him. Armstrong has been outstanding this postseason, allowing only one hit across 5⅓ scoreless innings. Cleveland also has Tanner Bibee, Slade Cecconi and its high-leverage relief options available to piece together the game. A bullpen game creates some volatility, but Cleveland has the pitching depth to attack matchups rather than allowing Tampa's hitters to see the same pitcher three times.

The Rays' offense is another major reason I'm comfortable playing such a low total. Tampa Bay entered tonight hitting only .197/.249/.314 with a 56 wRC+ this postseason, while averaging just three runs per game. Meanwhile, Rays pitchers have carried the team with a 2.72 postseason ERA. Tampa managed only three hits and two runs yesterday, while the top of the lineup has struggled to consistently generate damage. We've also seen how this matchup has tightened up as the series has progressed. Game 2 finished 3-1 and Game 3 finished 3-2. MLB described the matchup as one built around elite pitching, defense and extremely thin margins rather than offensive fireworks. That is exactly the type of playoff environment I want when betting an Under.

The weather could help as well. Cleveland is dealing with cold, rainy and windy conditions, and forecasts have raised the possibility of delays. Assuming the game is played without a long interruption that completely changes pitching plans, those are hardly ideal hitting conditions. The biggest risk here is obviously Cleveland's bullpen game. If Armstrong/Cantillo struggle with command or the rain forces Stephen Vogt to burn through arms earlier than planned, 6.5 can disappear quickly. But with Tampa's offense struggling, Martinez's excellent history against Cleveland and both teams showing they can win games with pitching and defense, I think the value is on another low scoring postseason grinder.

Projected score: Rays 3, Guardians 2

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Pick: Under 6.5 (+100)

🍀Best of luck!

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