Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams (5:15pm)

I like the Rams to win this game by more than a field goal tonight. Buffalo is obviously dangerous with Josh Allen, but this is a tough matchup for a Bills team dealing with some significant injuries, especially against a Rams offense that has the personnel to attack Buffalo's biggest weakness.

The biggest advantage for Los Angeles is Stafford against this Buffalo secondary. The Bills have allowed 256.2 passing yards per game and 10 passing touchdowns through four games, and now they have to deal with Matthew Stafford throwing to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Nacua looked fully back last week with 125 receiving yards against Philadelphia, and this is exactly the type of secondary Sean McVay should be able to scheme open. Buffalo's pass rush has been one of the stronger parts of its defense, but losing Ed Oliver is significant. Oliver has officially been ruled out tonight, which takes away one of Buffalo's best interior defensive linemen and should make it easier for the Rams to keep Stafford clean enough to attack downfield.

Buffalo isn't playing at Full Strength

The Bills will also be without WR Joshua Palmer, while DJ Moore is questionable with a shoulder injury. Buffalo even elevated another receiver from the practice squad before tonight's game, which tells you how thin that position group has become. Meanwhile, Los Angeles entered tonight with essentially only Quentin Lake being questionable, while Aaron Donald has been cleared to play. That health advantage matters when you're asking a home favorite to cover only a field goal.

Rams can make Buffalo One-Dimensional

James Cook has been Buffalo's most dangerous offensive weapon outside of Allen, but the Rams have been solid against the run, allowing roughly 102 rushing yards per game. If Los Angeles can contain Cook on early downs and force Buffalo into obvious passing situations, it gives the Rams more opportunities to pressure Allen and create mistakes. Buffalo has also become much more careless with the football recently. The Bills have committed seven turnovers over their last two games, including their first loss of the season against New England. Against a Rams offense capable of turning short fields into touchdowns, another one or two Buffalo turnovers could completely swing this game.

We've already seen this matchup favor McVay's offense

When these teams met at SoFi in 2024, the Rams won 44-42. Stafford threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns, Puka Nacua went for 162 receiving yards, and Kyren Williams added 87 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Obviously this is a different season and roster, but the previous matchup showed how difficult McVay's offense can be for Buffalo to defend.

I expect Buffalo to score points, but I trust the Rams more offensively in this particular matchup. Los Angeles has the better receiving weapons tonight, the healthier roster, home field, and an obvious matchup to exploit through Buffalo's secondary. The -3 is also important because a three-point Rams win gives us a push instead of a loss. With the broader market around Rams -3.5, getting -3 at -120 is a number I'm willing to pay extra juice for.

Projected Score: Rams 31, Bills 27

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Los Angeles Rams -3 (-120)

🍀Best of luck!

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