Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles (4:15pm)

I love the Under 8.5 in Friday night’s Rays-Orioles matchup, with Trevor Rogers giving Baltimore a strong chance to keep Tampa Bay’s offense under control. Rogers’ full-season 4.15 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story. He's been significantly better over the last few months, posting a 2.41 ERA across 12 starts since June 1. He also just faced this same Rays lineup five days ago and held them to two earned runs over six innings with six strikeouts and only one walk.

This matchup is especially appealing because Tampa Bay enters Baltimore after another quiet offensive performance. The Rays managed just one run and four singles against Shane Bieber on Thursday, and their offense produced only 30 runs during their recently completed seven-game homestand. Rogers already demonstrated that he can navigate this lineup, and seeing him again so quickly does not necessarily favor Tampa when he has been locating as well as he has lately.

Freddy Peralta is obviously the biggest concern for the Under, considering his 5.27 season ERA and his struggles since joining Tampa Bay. But there are reasons to believe he can do enough here. Peralta faced Baltimore on Sunday and surrendered only one hit and two earned runs through 4⅔ innings. His three walks created problems, but the Orioles weren't consistently squaring him up. Baltimore has also cooled significantly since that series. The Orioles were just swept by the Yankees and scored only five total runs over the three games. They were held to four hits in both the series opener and Thursday's finale.

The weather environment also isn't screaming offense. Friday's forecast calls for temperatures in the upper 70s with no notable wind, eliminating a significant weather boost for hitters. Tampa Bay's pitching staff has also been one of the better units in baseball overall, entering with a 3.86 ERA (8th in MLB) and 1.169 WHIP (3rd). With Rogers pitching at a much higher level than his season ERA suggests, both offenses coming off relatively quiet performances, and favorable weather for the pitchers, Under 8.5 (-120) is the side I recommend.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 8.5 (-120)

🍀Best of luck!

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