Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys (5:15pm)

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys — Under 49.5

The biggest reason I liked the Under was Tampa Bay’s quarterback situation. Baker Mayfield was ruled out with a thumb injury, leaving rookie Jalon Daniels to make just his second NFL start. Tampa Bay had already been one of the league’s least efficient offenses through four weeks, scoring fewer than 20 points in every game. With a rookie quarterback on the road, the Bucs had every reason to protect him with a conservative, run-heavy game plan instead of turning this into a shootout.

Dallas was the bigger threat to the total, but the expected game script actually helped the Under. The Cowboys entered as a sizable favorite, so if they played from ahead, there was little reason for Dak Prescott to throw 40+ times for four quarters. Tampa Bay had also been third in rushing yards allowed and second at limiting first downs through the air, giving them a chance to make Dallas work through longer possessions rather than consistently generating quick scores.

The short Thursday-night turnaround also favored a more controlled approach. Tampa Bay needed to lean on the running game, shorten the game and keep Dallas’ offense on the sideline. That type of strategy burns clock and reduces total possessions, which is exactly what you want with an Under.

My projection was roughly 24-20 Dallas/Tampa Bay, putting the game around 44 points. Under 49.5 gave us several points of cushion even if Dallas reached the mid-20s.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 49.5 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!

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