Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins (10:40am)

The strongest argument for the Under starts with Clay Holmes, who has quietly developed into one of Chicago’s most reliable starters. Holmes enters today with a 2.09 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and his current form has been even better. Over his last four starts, Holmes has surrendered just one earned run across 25 innings, including back-to-back scoreless outings against Arizona and Milwaukee. His elite ground-ball profile is particularly important against Miami: Holmes has generated a 65.2% ground-ball rate with only a 4.3% barrel rate over that recent stretch!

Miami counters with Tyler Phillips, who also comes into this matchup off an encouraging performance. Phillips held Kansas City to one hit and zero runs over five innings in his last start and owns a respectable 3.43 ERA on the season. His underlying numbers aren’t as dominant as Holmes but Phillips does generate ground balls and has generally limited barrels and hard contact.

The venue also helps. loanDepot park remains one of MLB’s more pitcher-friendly environments, carrying a 95 Statcast overall park factor in 2026, roughly 5% below a neutral scoring environment. That matters against a Cubs lineup with legitimate home-run power because Miami is less conducive to extra-base damage than many parks in the MLB.

Yesterday’s 6-5 Cubs win creates some concern after both offenses produced multiple home runs, but that game came against Javier Assad and Ryan Gusto rather than today’s pitching matchup. Holmes represents a significant upgrade for Chicago, while Phillips enters off five shutout innings.

I have this matchup playing closer to a 4-2 or 4-3 type of game. Holmes’ ability to suppress hard contact, Phillips’ ground-ball tendencies, and the pitcher-friendly environment at loanDepot park all point towards a lower scoring game.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 8 (-105)

🍀Best of luck!

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