St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies (10:35am)

Cristopher Sanchez is the biggest reason to like the Under. The Phillies lefty enters at 16-4 with a 2.51 ERA, 2.61 FIP and an excellent 22.1% K-BB rate. His 57.6% ground-ball rate is especially valuable at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park because it limits damaging fly balls and home runs. Sanchez has dominated this Cardinals lineup. Current St. Louis hitters have managed only a .179 batting average, .256 slugging percentage and .225 wOBA against him across 42 plate appearances. In four career starts against St. Louis, he owns a 1.85 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

A low-scoring output from St. Louis is very much in play. The Cardinals rank in the bottom half of MLB in runs per game, slugging percentage, and OPS, and now have to deal with one of the National League’s better starters in Cristopher Sanchez. If Sanchez can hold St. Louis to just 1-2 runs, Philadelphia would likely need to do most of the scoring for this game to get over the total. Kyle Leahy has also delivered solid results this season, entering at 10-4 with a 3.24 ERA and 3.53 FIP. While some of his underlying metrics point to possible regression, his overall run prevention has been good enough to give St. Louis a legitimate chance to keep Philadelphia from turning this into another high-scoring game.

The bullpens should be in decent shape after Saturday's blowout. Philadelphia got seven innings from Andrew Painter in its 12-3 win, dramatically reducing the workload on its bullpen. St. Louis also avoided burning all of its primary leverage arms after the game got out of hand. Saturday produced 15 runs, but much of that came from Quinn Mathews getting tagged for seven earned runs. Sunday's matchup is completely different with Sanchez on the mound and Leahy carrying substantially better season-long run-prevention numbers.

Under 8 is particularly attractive because the broader market is already lower. BetMGM was showing a 7.5-run total Sunday morning. Getting Under 8 at -110 gives you the key-number push protection at exactly eight runs while holding a half-run better number than that market.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 8 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!

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