Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays (10:10am)

Despite the first two games of this series producing 15 and 13 runs, I like the Under 7.5 in Thursday’s finale because the starting-pitching matchup is much better suited for a lower-scoring game. Tampa Bay sends Ian Seymour to the mound, and his recent form has been much stronger than his 4.11 season ERA suggests. Seymour has allowed only 8 earned runs over his last 28.2 innings, completing at least six innings in four of his last five starts while striking out 36 hitters during that stretch. His underlying numbers are also encouraging, including a 3.66 xERA and 3.81 FIP, which suggest he has pitched better than the surface ERA indicates.

That sets up well against a Toronto lineup that has been getting hits but hasn’t consistently generated much power. Over the Blue Jays last 10 games, they’ve hit only six home runs with a .367 slugging percentage. Toronto is also without Vladimir Guerrero Jr., taking another important bat out of the middle of the order. Against a left-hander like Seymour who owns a 1.13 WHIP and strong strikeout-to-walk numbers, Toronto could have a difficult time producing big innings we saw earlier in this series. 

Shane Bieber is the bigger question mark based on his 4.99 season ERA, but his recent pitching gives us more confidence than that number suggests. Bieber has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his 10 starts, and he is coming off an excellent outing against the Yankees in which he surrendered just one earned run over six innings on four hits. In August, Bieber has posted a 3.63 ERA over 17.1 innings, with two of his three starts resulting in just one earned run allowed.

Toronto’s pitching staff behind him has also been performing at its best level of the season. Entering this series, Blue Jays pitchers had recorded a 2.87 ERA in August, while relievers such as Braydon Fisher, Tyler Rogers and Mason Fluharty have been especially effective. Fisher entered this week with a 0.82 ERA for the month, Rogers at 0.96, and Fluharty had yet to allow an earned run. That gives Toronto legitimate options to protect the total once Bieber gets through five or six innings. 

The previous two games are actually part of what makes this spot interesting. Tuesday’s 10-5 game featured 17 Toronto hits, while Wednesday’s 7-6 final included a five-run Tampa Bay inning aided by defensive mistakes. Those are difficult offensive performances to simply project forward, especially with two starters entering Thursday in much better form.

At 7.5, there isn’t much margin for error, but I see this playing much closer to a 3-2 or 4-2 type of game than another shootout. Seymour’s recent dominance, Bieber’s improvement, Toronto’s lack of consistent power and a Blue Jays bullpen pitching extremely well all point toward scoring coming back down after two unusually offensive games.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 7.5 (-120)

🍀Best of luck!

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