Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins (1:10pm)

We witnessed the low-scoring nature of this matchup on Friday night when Miami emerged victorious in the series opener with a 3-2 win. Given the trend, I predict another pitchers duel this afternoon.

Washington has now struggled offensively in several recent games, including being held to one hit in a 2-0 loss to Texas immediately before this series. Their lineup isn’t nearly as intimidating right now as its full-season numbers suggest. The Nationals have been dealing with injuries and their strikeout rate has climbed to roughly 25% since the trade deadline. Eight of their nine projected starters are striking out at least 25% of the time, creating an excellent matchup for Perez and limiting Washington’s chances of scoring.

Eury Perez is the biggest reason I love the Under 7.5 in this matchup. Perez enters with a 3.23 ERA and has been pitching at an elite level for an extended stretch. Since June, he has posted a 1.30 ERA with a 2.30 xERA and 2.69 FIP across 10 starts, and he comes into Saturday riding a 15-inning scoreless streak. His strong swing-and-miss stuff gives him a major advantage against a Washington lineup that is clearly not seeing the baseball well.

Jake Irvin is clearly the biggest risk to the Under, carrying a 5.80 ERA and 5.30 xERA, but Miami isn’t the type of offense I want to automatically price for a huge scoring output. The Marlins have averaged roughly 4.3–4.4 runs per game, and their power production has been relatively modest compared with the league’s better offenses.

With Perez ability of giving Miami six or seven dominant innings, a strikeout-heavy Nationals lineup and a favorable pitching environment, I see this playing more like a 3-2 or 4-2 game.

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Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)

🍀Best of luck!

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