St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins (11:10am)
- 4 days ago
- 2 min read
The Twins are live underdogs today because this matchup lines up better for Minnesota than the records suggest. St. Louis owns the stronger overall record, but Minnesota brings the more dangerous power offense, the home-field edge, and a lineup that just proved it can change the game with one swing.
Minnesota’s offense woke up in a big way last night, putting up 9 runs and using the long ball to steal momentum late. Byron Buxton is the key bat here. He’s seeing the ball well, just homered again, and gives the Twins a true game-changing presence at the top of the order. When Buxton, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Josh Bell and Kody Clemens are driving the baseball, Minnesota has enough right-handed and switch-hit power to pressure Matthew Liberatore.
The starter matchup is closer than the ERA gap suggests. Connor Prielipp has been inconsistent, but his WHIP is better than Liberatore’s, and he has done a better job limiting home-run damage. Liberatore’s 1.51 WHIP is the concern for St. Louis. If he’s putting runners on base at Target Field against a Twins lineup with power, one bad inning can swing the entire game.
The market also tells us this is not a spot where the Cardinals should be treated like the clearly superior side. This number opened close to pick’em but the public has now bet the Cardinals to a -120 favorite, and ESPN’s matchup projection has Minnesota slightly ahead. That matters because the public will naturally gravitate toward the better record, but the underlying matchup gives the Twins multiple paths to win. Making this one of my public fades of the day!
Minnesota already proved last night it can get into the Cardinals’ bullpen and win late. After St. Louis blew an 8-7 lead, the Twins’ confidence should carry over, while the Cardinals are now coming off three straight losses after a six-game winning streak. At home, with the hotter power bats the value truly sits with the Twins.
(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Minnesota Twins ML (-105)
🍀Best of luck!
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