St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs (11:20am)

This game has all the ingredients for an Under. Clay Holmes’ ability to suppress runs, combined with favorable conditions at Wrigley Field, sets up well for a lower-scoring matchup. Holmes enters with a 2.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while allowing just four home runs across 56.2 innings. His sinker-heavy arsenal has also produced a 57.9% ground-ball rate, exactly the type of profile I want when backing an Under at Wrigley.

St. Louis draws a difficult matchup against Holmes as well. The Cardinals are hitting just .242 against right-handed pitching this season, and Holmes doesn’t have to rely on strikeouts to work through a lineup. His ability to generate ground balls, limit hard contact, and keep the ball in the yard should make sustained rallies difficult for St. Louis.

Matthew Liberatore is clearly the biggest concern with this Under. A 5.15 ERA and 1.52 WHIP aren’t numbers I would normally be eager to back, especially against a Cubs lineup capable of doing damage against left-handed pitching. But with the total sitting at 8, Liberatore doesn’t need to dominate. If he can simply get through five innings while holding Chicago to three or four runs, Holmes gives us a strong chance of keeping the Cardinals in the 2–3 run range and putting the Under in position to cash.

The recent bullpen numbers also support the play. St. Louis has posted a 3.44 bullpen ERA over the last seven days, while Chicago’s bullpen sits at 3.57 during that same stretch. Both relief units have performed better lately than their overall season numbers suggest, which helps limit the chances of a late-inning scoring explosion.

The weather could be the final piece. Winds around Wrigley are expected to blow inward at roughly 10 mph, an important factor at one of baseball’s most wind-sensitive parks. Those conditions can turn potential extra-base hits and home runs into routine outs.

Overall, I see a game where Holmes controls the Cardinals, Liberatore does enough to keep Chicago from breaking the game open, and the weather helps suppress power on both sides.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 8 (-105)

🍀Best of luck!

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