St. Francis (PA) vs Chicago State (1:00pm)

The NEC showdown between the Saint Francis (PA) Red Flash and Chicago State Cougars this afternoon features two of the lowest-scoring teams in college basketball. With the over/under line set at 145–146.5 across sportsbooks, expectations might lean toward a moderate total but the data points strongly to a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair that finishes well under.

Two of the Worst Offenses in Division I Basketball

This season has been brutal offensively for both squads.

• Chicago State ranks near the bottom nationally, averaging just 65 points per game (354th out of 365 teams) with an adjusted offensive efficiency in the 340s on KenPom and Bart Torvik metrics.

• Saint Francis (PA) isn't much better, posting around 70–71 PPG (around 300–310th nationally) and struggling with efficiency rankings in the low 300s.

  
  

When two bottom-tier offenses share the court, points are hard to come by. Combined, their season averages project to a total in the low 130s leaving plenty of cushion under 145.5 even with some variance.

Abysmal Shooting and Efficiency Numbers

Digging deeper into the analytics reveals why scoring is so difficult. Chicago State shoots a dreadful effective FG% around 43–44% (near last in D-I), while Saint Francis isn't far ahead at 47–48%. Both teams rank in the bottom 50 for offensive rebounding and turnover rates that disrupt flow. Defenses aren't elite (both allow high eFG% to opponents), but when neither side can convert efficiently, games turn into brick-fests. Expect missed shots, forced turnovers, and extended possessions that kill the clock without adding points.

Recent Head-to-Head Proves the Under

These teams met just weeks ago on January 23, 2026, with Saint Francis winning 81–60 a combined 141 points, comfortably under today's line. Previous meetings have trended similarly low when Chicago State's offense is bottled up. On the road, Saint Francis has shown they can dictate a slower pace, and Chicago State's home games rarely turn into shootouts given their scoring woes.

Slow Tempo and Game Script Favor Fewer Possessions

Tempo stats highlight another under angle. Chicago State plays at one of the slower paces in the country (adjusted tempo rankings in the 200s–300s), while Saint Francis prefers a controlled, half-court style around 69–70 possessions per game. Fewer possessions mean fewer scoring opportunities. In a likely close or low-possession game, both coaches will emphasize defense, rebounding, and avoiding turnovers further suppressing the total.

Trends and Bottom-Line Rankings Support the Under

Chicago State's games have frequently gone under this season due to their inability to score consistently. Saint Francis road games against similar low-major opponents have also trended low. Advanced metrics place both teams in the bottom 20 nationally overall, with offensive struggles as the primary culprit. The line at 145 feels inflated perhaps respecting home-court scoring bumps but sharp action has already nudged some books toward the under.

Final Thoughts: This isn't a matchup for highlight-reel offense; it's a battle of survival between two struggling programs. Look for a defensive-minded slog in the 68–62 or 72–65 range which will easily clear the under. This total has all the makings of a classic low-scoring NEC grinder. I handicapped this game at 142 points combined.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 145 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!

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