Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox (1:10pm)

There is a strong case for a lower-scoring game at Fenway despite the first two games of this series producing plenty of offense.

Patrick Sandoval has been better than his 4.20 ERA suggests recently. The Boston left-hander has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, including 5.1 innings of one-run ball against the Yankees in his most recent outing. Seattle is also an excellent matchup for him. Over the past 30 days, the Mariners are averaging only 3.6 runs per game while ranking 29th in xwOBA, and they rank dead last in MLB in wOBA against left-handed pitching.

Sandoval also hasn't been getting crushed from a quality-of-contact standpoint. Opponents have produced just an 86.3 mph average exit velocity, 30.1% hard-hit rate and 4.3% barrel rate against him. His elevated BABIP suggests some of the traffic he has allowed on the bases has also involved poor fortune rather than consistently hard contact.

Bryce Miller's surface numbers hide some encouraging underlying metrics. Miller owns a 4.12 ERA, but his 3.19 xERA and 3.87 xFIP are considerably stronger, accompanied by a solid 17.8% K-BB rate, 107 Stuff+ and 110 Location+. He has already faced Boston once this season and limited the Red Sox to just one run on three hits across five innings on June 19. Miller's recent results have been ugly, but this is also a potential regression spot in the opposite direction. His 1.09 WHIP for the season shows that he generally doesn't allow a large number of baserunners, and his ability to miss bats gives him a path to limiting the big innings Boston needs to push this game over 8.5.

Boston's bullpen provides another major advantage for the Under. The Red Sox relief corps ranks second in MLB in xERA and third in xFIP during the second half despite carrying one of the heavier workloads in baseball. If Sandoval gets through five or six innings with Seattle around two runs, Boston is well equipped to shut the door late.

The weather doesn't create an obvious offensive boost either. Forecasts call for temperatures around 72°F with roughly an 11-mph crosswind, rather than a strong wind blowing toward the outfield. That reduces one of the bigger concerns when playing an Under at hitter-friendly Fenway.

There is also an interesting contrarian market angle. Roughly 85% of reported total bets are on the Over 8.5, yet the money has been essentially split 50/50, with the Under priced around -112. That suggests larger wagers are giving the Under significantly more respect than the public ticket count would indicate.

Seattle's struggles against lefties, Sandoval's recent run prevention, Miller's stronger underlying metrics and Boston's elite bullpen give this game multiple paths toward a 4-3 or 4-2 type of finish.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 8.5 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!

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