San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals (11:15am)

The Padres are live to beat the Cardinals today because this is a strong bounce-back spot for a lineup that is better than what it has shown in the first two games of this series. San Diego has been quiet against St. Louis, but before this matchup, the Padres had just put together strong offensive series against Baltimore and Cincinnati.

This is a classic buy-low spot on an offense that has too much talent with Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Gavin Sheets to stay cold for a full series. The matchup against Kyle Leahy is also more beatable than the market suggests. Leahy has been decent for St. Louis, but his 4.64 ERA does not suggest he is the type of arm who should completely neutralize this Padres lineup twice in such a short window. San Diego has already seen him recently, and that second look matters. The Padres should have a better plan at the plate, make him work deeper counts, and force St. Louis to go to the bullpen earlier than it wants.

Bradgley Rodriguez gives San Diego a much better pitching setup than the original projected matchup suggested. Instead of asking a struggling starter to carry the game, the Padres can use Rodriguez as an opener and attack St. Louis with a different look early. Rodriguez has been one of the more reliable arms on this staff, carrying a strong ERA, limiting damage, and giving San Diego a chance to control the first trip through the Cardinals’ order.

The biggest key is desperation and regression. St. Louis has controlled the first two games, but the Padres have not been blown out; they have simply failed to cash in offensively. In a getaway-day spot, avoiding the sweep, San Diego has the better urgency, the more dangerous top half of the lineup, and a bullpen that can protect a late lead. At plus money, the value sits with the Padres to finally break through and steal the series finale.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: San Diego Padres ML +117

🍀Best of luck!

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