I have a strong inclination to go against the public consensus today! Despite over 70% of both tickets and money favoring the Under for this game, the total has unexpectedly climbed from 130 to 132 for this matchup. The question arises: why would bookmakers offer Under bettors a more favorable line? This phenomenon is commonly referred to as "Reverse Line Movement," often spurred by sharp action. Reverse line movement occurs when the betting line shifts in the opposite direction of where the majority of bets are placed. This can manifest across spread bets, money-lines, and totals, typically indicating a disparity between the opinions of sharp bettors and the general public's perception of a game.
Rutgers is riding high from a significant win against Northwestern, where they amassed an impressive 78 points. While not traditionally known for high-scoring performances, Rutgers seems to have found their rhythm, which could carry over into tonight's matchup. Conversely, Minnesota is reeling from a tough loss to Purdue, who scored 84 points with a 47% shooting rate from both the field and beyond the arc.
I foresee the possibility of another defensive lapse from Minnesota, especially given their likely anticipation of facing Ohio State next. I anticipate a fast-paced, high-scoring game, with my calculations suggesting a combined total of 138-141 points. This presents an advantageous opportunity, offering over 6 points in value. My recommendation is to take the Over! Notably, the total has gone Over in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games.
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Pick: Over 132 (-110)
🍀Best of luck!
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