Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns (10:00am)

The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) face the Cleveland Browns (3-12) in a Week 17 AFC North clash on December 28, 2025, at Huntington Bank Field. While Pittsburgh enters as a short favorite (around -3 to -4.5 across sportsbooks), the over/under sits at a season-low 33.5 to 35.5 points in most markets. Betting the under 33.5 makes strong sense based on team profiles, historical trends, and external factors.

Browns Anemic Offense Struggles to Score

Cleveland ranks near the bottom of the NFL in scoring, averaging just 16.4 points per game (31st in the league). Their attack has been inconsistent all season, hampered by injuries (e.g., RB Quinshon Judkins out) and a rookie-heavy lineup, including QB Shedeur Sanders. The Browns often rely on short possessions and ground control, but they've failed to explode against quality defenses.Against divisional opponents, Cleveland averages even fewer points (14.5 PPG). Facing a motivated Steelers team playing for playoff positioning, expect the Browns to stall in the red zone and settle for field goals at best or turn it over.

Elite Defenses on Both Sides Limit Big Plays

This matchup features two stout units built for AFC North grinders:

• The Browns' defense ranks among the league's best, allowing the second-fewest scrimmage yards per game (277.8) and boasting the third-most sacks, led by Myles Garrett (22 sacks, chasing the single-season record).

• Pittsburgh allows 23.3 points per game (middle-of-pack but solid recently, holding opponents to 20.3 PPG over the last three games).

  
  

Both teams excel at forcing three-and-outs and negative plays. The Steelers' pass rush (featuring players like T.J. Watt and Nick Herbig) will pressure Sanders, while Garrett could disrupt Aaron Rodgers and force Pittsburgh to run heavily.

Rivalry History Favors Low-Scoring Affairs

Recent Steelers-Browns games trend decisively under:

• The last five head-to-heads stayed under the total every time.

• Pittsburgh outscored Cleveland 105-82 across those matchups.

• Games in Cleveland often turn ugly, with the Steelers struggling historically (1-5-1 since 2018) but winning via defense and field position.

This isn't a high-flying series—it's physical, mistake-prone football with limited explosive plays.

Weather Conditions

Will Suppress Passing and Kicking Late December in Cleveland brings challenging elements.

Forecasts call for:

• Temperatures around 50°F.

• A 60-70% chance of rain.

• Winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph (and a high wind warning in some reports).

  
  

Rain and wind make passing difficult (inaccurate throws, drops), favor run-heavy scripts, and complicate field goals. Expect both teams to pound the rock, chew clock, and avoid deep shots—classic under conditions in an open lakefront stadium

Game Script Points to a Conservative, Low-Output Battle

Pittsburgh, on a three-game win streak, can clinch the AFC North with a victory. They'll prioritize ball control, leaning on RBs like Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell while protecting Rodgers (especially without WR DK Metcalf due to suspension). The Browns, eliminated from playoffs, play spoiler but lack the firepower to keep pace. This has all the makings of a 20-10 or 17-13 slog—bet the under confidently.

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Pick: Under 33.5 (-110) 🍀Best of luck!

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