Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder (4:40pm)

With the total set at 225 points (and 225.5 at some books), the under presents a strong case, driven by Oklahoma City’s elite defense and Phoenix’s injury issues and sputtering offense. Even though earlier matchups between these teams were high-scoring, the Thunder have since emerged as the league’s premier defensive unit, and the Suns have slipped into multiple scoring droughts. Both signs pointing toward a gritty, low-scoring game likely to land below 225.

The Thunder are off to a historic 23–1 start behind the NBA’s toughest defense. They’re allowing just 106.9 points per game (Fewest in the League) and own a league-best 104.1 defensive rating. Over their last 10 games, they’ve tightened the screws even further, giving up only 103.6 points, forcing 18.2 turnovers per game, and holding opponents to 42.1% shooting.

Phoenix, meanwhile, has struggled to score all season and may be without Devin Booker tonight. The Suns already rank just 22nd in scoring at 113.2 points per game, but in Booker’s four absences they’ve averaged only 102.3. Depth is also an issue, with Isaiah Livers ruled out, forcing heavier minutes onto less efficient role players.

Neither team is built for a shootout. Phoenix plays at the league’s sixth-slowest pace (96.8 possessions per 48 minutes), dragging opponents into half-court battles and hitting the under in six of its last nine. The Thunder also prefer a slower style, posting a below-average pace of 99.5. Together, this matchup projects around 98–100 total possessions—well short of the 102+ typically needed to reach 225 points. And in the past two years, elimination-style games have cashed the under at an 11–3 clip.

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Pick: Under 225 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!

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