Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Chargers (5:15pm)
- exclusivevipsports
- 4 days ago
- 2 min read
The bookmakers were hit hard this past week! They watched the public hit the Over in 11 out of the 12 NFL games played so far! SportsInsights reports that over 85% of the bets and money are placed on the Over, prompting the bookmakers to adjust their total bet by 1.5 points. This is a significant liability for the bookmakers, and they will need the Under to come through. Tonight presents an excellent opportunity to fade the public as we have a substantial value bet on the total, with over 3 points in value.
Philadelphia Eagles are coming off another loss to the Chicago Bears this past Friday. This year, the Eagles’ offensive performance has been lackluster. They rank 23rd in passing offense, averaging only 196.3 yards per game, and 22nd in rushing offense, averaging 108.5 yards per game. Over the last four games in November, the Eagles have scored a mere 15.5 points per game. Their third-down conversion rate is only 34.5%, which will be challenging against the Chargers’ superior defense, which allows only 34.8% on third down. Jalen Hurts will face a formidable task against the Chargers’ zone defense, which plays zone 79.5% of the time.
The Chargers had a well-deserved bye week and welcomed back Justin Herbert as their starting quarterback after a successful surgery to stabilize a fractured bone in his left non-throwing hand. Currently, Los Angeles holds the top wild-card spot in the crowded AFC playoff race, trailing the Denver Broncos by two games. The Chargers boast an exceptional defense, ranking 2nd in passing yards allowed. They are also ranked in the Top 5 when it comes to first and third down conversions.
This game will likely be won in the trenches, with both teams relying on their running game rather than scoring through the air. I’ve handicapped this game at 40 points combined. The Eagles has consistently stayed under in 7 of their last 12 games when the total is set this low.
(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 41.5 (-110)
🍀Best of luck!
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