Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors (4:30pm)

The biggest factor to this Under is Orlando’s offense. The Magic enter this matchup without Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs, removing two of their most important shot creators and ball handlers. Orlando has consequently been one of the least efficient offensive teams in basketball, ranking near the bottom of the NBA in offensive rating while averaging only around 107 points per game.

That is an especially difficult matchup against a Toronto defense that has been dominant early in the season. The Raptors are allowing just 102.5 points per game and have posted a defensive rating around 98, among the best marks in the league. Their length and aggressiveness have created a huge number of deflections and steals, which is a problem for an Orlando team already turning the basketball over at a high rate.

Toronto already showed how well its defensive personnel matches up against Orlando two nights ago. The Raptors held the Magic to only 99 points, limiting Franz Wagner to 15 points while Desmond Bane shot just 3-for-14. Orlando simply doesn't have many reliable secondary scoring options available if Toronto successfully takes Wagner and Bane away again. The previous meeting finished 129-99, totaling 228 points, but Toronto needed an unusually efficient 129-point performance just to push that game above tonight's 227 number. I'm expecting some offensive regression from the Raptors in the rematch. Toronto is shooting only around 30% from three early this season, and with Kawhi Leonard unavailable, this isn't necessarily an offense I expect to consistently reach the upper 120s.

There is also a strong rematch angle here. Orlando was embarrassed by 30 points Wednesday, and coach Sean Sweeney specifically emphasized improving his team's physicality and defensive communication afterward. I expect the Magic to make slowing Toronto down a major priority rather than allowing another track meet. Toronto does play fast, which is the biggest risk to the Under, but pace doesn't automatically create points when one offense can't efficiently finish possessions. Orlando's missing creators, Toronto's elite defensive pressure and the likelihood of the Magic emphasizing defense after Wednesday's blowout give me enough reasons to expect a lower-scoring rematch.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 227 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!

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