In my assessment, the current total appears overly generous, particularly considering Portland's struggles as one of the least efficient shooting teams in the league, ranking 30th in field goal percentage and hitting a mere 35% from three-point range. The Trail Blazers also sit at 29th in NBA scoring, averaging just 107.8 points per game. Given these circumstances, I anticipate both offenses will likely encounter difficulties, leading to a total score falling below the posted mark.
The 76ers may face personnel shortages tonight, with Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, and Tobias Harris all listed as questionable. Following a six-game winning streak, they aim to break a two-game losing streak, having fallen short against the Nuggets (111-105) on the road last Saturday. The team total stands at 116.5 with -120 odds favoring the Under. It's challenging to envision the Sixers surpassing 115 points without these key players. Despite potential manpower shortages, the Sixers have demonstrated strong defense, ranking 8th in opponent field goal percentage (46.5%) and 1st in three-point defense (33.9%).
SportsInsights indicates that 95% of the bets and 99% of the money are on the Under. Although the initial public sentiment leaned towards the Over, the total has since dropped from 224.5 to 222.5, showcasing a reverse line movement. This trend suggests that the Under holds more promise for the total outcome. Notably, the Under has prevailed in 4 out of the Trail Blazers' last 5 games as underdogs of 0.5-10.5 and in 10 out of 13 games when playing on 0 days' rest.
Pick: Under 222.5 (-110)
🍀Best of luck!
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