The total points for this series are at their highest in over 4-5 years, enticing the public to favor the Over in betting. Despite the trend of the last three games going over the posted total, there's a sense that this game may diverge from that pattern. The Magic are currently struggling, scoring less than 100 points in their last two games, and are up against another formidable defensive team. However, Orlando's 8th-ranked defense has been a positive aspect, holding both the Heat and Timberwolves to less than 100 points in their recent games, with teams averaging only 111.6 points per game against them.
Shifting focus to Oklahoma City, their perimeter defense has been impressive, ranking ninth against three-pointers and fourth against mid-range jumpers, according to Cleaning the Glass. Notably, they lead the league with a remarkable 59.8% opponent field goal percentage. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams deserve recognition for their exceptional defensive contributions. This defensive strength will be crucial, particularly against a Magic team known for their effectiveness in the restricted area.
With SportsInsights indicating that over 96% of the money is on the Over, this becomes my preferred fade on the NBA board. The minimal line movement suggests that bookmakers are comfortable with their current number. My handicapping for this game places the expected combined points between 225-228. Additionally, the Under has prevailed in 8 out of the Magic's last 11 games when they were considered underdogs.
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Pick: Under 232 (-110)
🍀Best of luck!
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