New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays (3:40pm)

The strongest case for the Under starts with Ian Seymour against a struggling Mets offense. Seymour has settled into the Rays’ rotation nicely, posting a 3.77 ERA with 38 strikeouts and only four walks over his last five appearances. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all five of those outings, including one run over six innings against Seattle and two runs over six at Coors Field. His ability to miss bats while limiting free passes gives New York fewer opportunities to manufacture big innings.

New York’s offense has also been inconsistent entering this series. The Mets went just 4-for-23 with runners in scoring position against Houston over the weekend, and they recently recorded another game with three or fewer hits, tying them for the second-most such games in MLB. Even with Juan Soto back in the lineup, the offense has continued to struggle.

Robert Stock’s 7.40 ERA makes this Under uncomfortable, but his results have been far more volatile than consistently bad. Before getting hit hard by Milwaukee, Stock allowed just one earned run against San Diego, zero earned runs against Washington and one earned run against Miami. Three of his five August starts therefore produced one earned run or fewer. His underlying numbers are also less alarming than the ERA, with a 4.63 FIP and 5.03 xERA. Additionally, his BABIP is exceptionally high at .385, indicating that he has faced some unfortunate circumstances and that his performance may not be as bad as his ERA suggests.

Tampa Bay Rays are undoubtedly the biggest threat to this Under. Despite boasting the best OPS and wRC+ in the American League, this strength is already reflected in Tampa’s hefty moneyline price. To keep the total under 8, Stock doesn’t need to dominate. He just needs to pitch 4-5 solid innings, allowing 4 or fewer runs. I believe that’s very possible for us to cash another play!

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 8 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!

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