New York Knicks vs Toronto Raptors (5:40pm)

Tonight's Knicks/Raptors game has all the makings of a defensive slugfest! With the total sitting at 226 points, the Under screams value! Bolstered by two elite defenses, key injuries sapping offensive firepower, and a recent head-to-head that exposed Toronto's scoring woes. Stats and trends points to a grind-it-out affair where both squads prioritize stopping the opponent over lighting up the scoreboard.

Both teams rank in the top 10 for points allowed per game, creating a matchup tailor-made for low totals. The Knicks defense is ranked 5th allowing just 112.4 ppg forcing opponents into inefficient half-court sets and ranking 7th in opponent field goal percentage at 46.1%. This is thanks to suffocating wing play from OG Anunoby (Fresh Off Injury) and Mikal Bridges, who together clamp down on perimeter threats like no other duo in the NBA.

Toronto isn't far behind, ranking 8th at 113.8 ppg allowed while excelling at perimeter containment. They are holding foes to just 33.3% from deep (3rd in the NBA). The Raptors crash the glass at 43.2 RPA (13th) and rank 10th in opponent field goal percentage (46.4%), but their real edge shines with their transition defense, which has been pivotal during their recent skid. Over the last 10 games, Toronto's defense has limited opponents to 112 ppg, a mark that drops even lower against teams like New York that thrives on rebounding and executing rather than fast breaks.

When two top-10 defenses collide, pace slows to a crawl. The Knicks average a methodical 99.5 possessions per game which ranks in the bottom 10, while Toronto mirrors that with a focus on half-court grit. All-time, these games have trended towards a low scoring game. New York owns a nine game winning streak over Toronto, including a lop sided 116-94 blowout back on November 30. In the last five meetings, the Knicks have held foes to 106.6 ppg and totals going Under in 60% of Raptors games.

SportsInsights is reporting over 87% of the tickets and money on the Over making this one of my favorite public fades on the board. I handicapped this game falling within 217-220 points. Defense travels, and the scoreboard stays quiet tonight!

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Pick: Under 226 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!

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