Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays (4:00pm)

I love the Under 7 tonight in Game 3 of the World Series because this matchup sets up as a pitching-first game with two starters who have been dominant throughout October.

Tampa Bay sends Freddy Peralta to the mound, and he enters tonight with a 2-0 record and 1.08 ERA this postseason. He has allowed only two earned runs across 16.2 playoff innings, and Tampa Bay has won every one of his postseason starts. With the Rays down 0-2 in the series, I expect Peralta to get a longer leash than usual if he's throwing well.

Milwaukee counters with Robert Gasser, who owns a 1.00 postseason ERA. His most recent outing was especially impressive: five scoreless innings against the Dodgers in Game 3 of the NLCS. That gives Milwaukee a legitimate chance to keep Tampa Bay quiet through the first half of this game rather than immediately turning it into another bullpen-heavy matchup. The biggest reason I trust Milwaukee on an Under is its bullpen. Brewers relievers have posted a ridiculous 1.24 ERA through their first 10 postseason games, with Aaron Ashby yet to allow a run through 15.2 postseason innings. Trevor Megill was also able to rest in Game 2, giving Milwaukee another premium late-inning arm available tonight. Tampa Bay's bullpen comes in rested as well after Sunday's off-day.

The World Series also favors a more conservative game. Tampa Bay is down 0-2 and absolutely cannot afford another sloppy performance. I expect the Rays to emphasize clean baseball, run prevention and letting Peralta work instead of forcing offense early. Milwaukee has no reason to get overly aggressive either with a two-game series lead and one of baseball's hottest bullpens protecting them. I have this game projected in the 3-2 or 4-2 range. At a total of 7, we also have some protection if the game lands exactly on seven runs. Take the Under!

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 7 (-105)

🍀Best of luck!

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