Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders (1:25pm)

I like the Rams laying the short number against Las Vegas. This is a spot where I believe the overall matchup favors Los Angeles much more than the records suggest.

The biggest advantage is Matthew Stafford and the Rams passing attack against the Raiders secondary. Los Angeles entered the matchup ranked 3rd in total offense and 2nd in passing offense at 288.7 passing yards per game, while Las Vegas was just 24th against the pass and 28th in total defense. Even with injuries on offense, Sean McVay still has enough weapons and scheme advantages to consistently create favorable matchups for Stafford.

The Raiders' inability to consistently run the football is another major factor. Las Vegas entered the game averaging only 79.2 rushing yards per game, 30th in the NFL. That puts a lot of pressure on Kirk Cousins to carry the offense through the air. If the Rams get ahead early and force Las Vegas into obvious passing situations, the Raiders become much easier to defend.

I also like the Rams' ability to establish their own running game with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. Las Vegas was allowing 134.3 rushing yards per game, ranking 28th in the league. If LA can stay balanced, McVay can use play action, keep Stafford clean and control the clock instead of asking him to drop back 40+ times.

The situational spot also favors Los Angeles. The Rams entered this matchup having lost two straight and badly needing a win to stay alive in the NFC playoff picture, while the Raiders had dropped three consecutive games after their 3-0 start. This was a strong bounce-back opportunity for a veteran team with Stafford and McVay against a Las Vegas defense that had struggled to get stops.

At only -3, I'm essentially asking the Rams to win by more than a field goal. With the advantage at quarterback, a much stronger overall defense, the better passing attack and a favorable matchup for the Rams' running game, I have Los Angeles winning this game comfortably.

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Pick: Los Angeles Rams -3 (-120)

Projected Score: Rams 27, Raiders 20

🍀Best of luck!

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