Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves (10:35am)

The Brewers are in a great bounce-back spot today against the Braves. Milwaukee has dropped the first two games of this series, but both losses were extremely competitive and could have easily gone the other way. Friday ended with Jackson Chourio being thrown out at the plate as the potential tying run, and Saturday was a brutal walk-off loss after the Brewers held a late lead. That tells us Milwaukee is not being outclassed in this matchup they just need one or two late-game breaks to flip the result.

Robert Gasser is better than his surface numbers show. His ERA sits near 5.00, but the underlying profile is much stronger, with his expected ERA sitting in the low-3.00 range. He has done a good job limiting quality contact, and that matters against an Atlanta lineup that can do damage quickly when pitchers leave mistakes over the plate. Gasser is also coming off his best start of the season, throwing 5.2 scoreless innings against Cleveland while allowing only two hits. If he carries that command into today, Milwaukee should have no issues neutralizing Atlanta’s power bats early.

The matchup against Bryce Elder also gives the Brewers a chance to get their offense going. Elder’s season-long ERA looks solid, but he is coming off a rough outing where he gave up six runs on 10 hits, and Milwaukee has several bats that can put pressure on him with contact, speed, and left-handed balance. Brice Turang has also seen Elder well, hitting .400 with a 1.100 OPS and a home run in previous matchups. If Turang, Chourio, Yelich, and Contreras can create traffic early, Milwaukee can force Elder into stressful innings.

The biggest angle here is value. Atlanta is going for the sweep at home, so the public is naturally betting the Braves, but Milwaukee is still an elite National League team with too much talent to be priced like a clear underdog in this spot. After two frustrating losses, the Brewers will bring urgency, and Gasser’s recent form gives them enough pitching stability to keep this game close and eventually pull away with a win for us.

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Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-105)

🍀Best of luck!

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