Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox (10:35am)

This matchup looks set to be a low-scoring contest and is one of my top Under bets on the MLB slate. Boston will send their ace, Garrett Crochet, to the mound as the Red Sox aim for a sweep against the Miami Marlins. Crochet has a 13-5 record with an impressive 2.48 ERA this season. I expect him to bounce back strongly after his roughest outing of the year, where he gave up five runs on seven hits to the Astros this past Monday.

The Marlins will counter with Janson Junk (6-2, 4.06 ERA). The Red Sox’ offense has cooled off recently, dropping from 11th to 14th in overall wRC+ this season, which could favor Junk since it’ll be the first time Boston faces him. Junk is coming off a loss in which he allowed three runs on six hits in a close 4-3 road defeat to the Guardians. If Junk can deliver a quality start and pitch beyond the 5th inning, Boston’s generally solid bullpen should do enough to keep this game under the total.

With all the games in this series being tightly contested, I expect another close, low-scoring game this morning. Boston’s bullpen is among the best in the league, though they did give up 3 runs last night—so look for a rebound effort from them. I’ve projected this game to fall within 7-8 runs, which adds some value to the Under.

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Pick: Under 8.5 (-120)