Iowa vs Michigan State (4:00pm)

One of my most reliable betting angles is backing the underdog when the total is set below 140 points. Tonight, two undefeated 7–0 teams meet with the total posted at 132.5. Iowa is off to an impressive start under first-year head coach Ben McCollum, who came over from Drake and is already pushing for a statement win. After last season’s 17–16 finish, he has reshaped the program with a defense-first identity, holding opponents to just 61.1 points per game. I expect Iowa to carry that momentum into this matchup while Michigan State shows signs of regression.

Iowa sits inside the Top 30 in KenPom efficiency on both ends of the floor. Defensively, they apply strong ball pressure and consistently force turnovers, ranking 6th nationally in turnover percentage. The Hawkeyes also control the pace, sitting 357th in tempo, and are coming off a 59–46 win over Grand Canyon. Market consensus shows more than 68% of the public backing Michigan State tonight and understandably so. The Spartans have won three straight by margins of 16+ points and are fresh off a big victory over North Carolina. Still, their defense has weaknesses, ranking near the bottom nationally in both steals and blocks.

Expect a defensive battle between these two teams. Michigan State may be the stronger team on paper, but Iowa should keep this one competitive throughout. I project Michigan State winning by 2–3 points, giving us value on the underdog.

(2x-Rated Members Only)

Pick: Iowa +5 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!

ExclusiveVipSports