Today, I highly recommend fading the Dallas Mavericks. Currently, more than 85% of the tickets and 87% of the money are backing Dallas for tonight's game. Personally, I handicapped the Hawks as a PK, so we're receiving over a point in value by supporting them. Atlanta's offense showcases clear strengths, while Dallas enters this matchup with significant defensive vulnerabilities.
The Hawks rank among the top six teams in offensive rebound rate (31.4%), free throw creation (24.7 attempts per game), and free throw accuracy (81%). Additionally, Atlanta ranks within the NBA's top eight for 3-pointers made per game (13.7) and second-chance points (15.5 per game), indicating their ability to put pressure on the Mavericks.
Conversely, Dallas ranks in the bottom five for defensive rebound rate (68.7%), potentially giving Atlanta additional second-chance opportunities. Moreover, the Mavericks sit in the bottom three for steals (6.3 per game) and blocked shots (3.7 per game), with opponents shooting 48.5% from the field against them. Notably, Atlanta holds a 13-2 record when shooting over 48.3%, suggesting a significant chance of outright victory for the Hawks.
Pick: Atlanta Hawks +1.5 (-110)
🍀Best of luck!
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