CS Fullerton vs UC Davis (7:00pm)

The Big West Conference matchup between the UC Davis Aggies (16-10, 9-6) and Cal State Fullerton Titans (13-14, 8-7) on February 19, 2026, at Titan Gym carries an over/under line around 155.5-156.5. While Fullerton leads the conference in scoring at 83.2 points per game, several factors point strongly to this game finishing under the total.

Low-Scoring Earlier Meeting This Season

The most compelling evidence comes from the teams' January 15, 2026, matchup in Davis, where UC Davis won 74-69 for a combined total of just 143 points, which is 13 points below tonight's line. That game featured deliberate pacing and strong defense, a pattern likely to repeat in this rematch. Head-to-head games between these programs have historically averaged around 136-137 points in recent seasons, trending toward lower totals.

UC Davis' Strong Defense and Pace Control

UC Davis ranks as one of the better defensive teams in the Big West, allowing just 74.3 points per game overall. Their adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom places them ahead of Fullerton, and they excel at slowing opponents down. While Fullerton plays at one of the fastest tempos nationally (73.3 possessions per game, top-10 pace), UC Davis operates at a more controlled 68.9 possessions.

In their earlier meeting, the Aggies successfully dictated a slower rhythm, limiting possessions and forcing inefficient shots.

Betting Trends and Expert Consensus Favor the Under

Multiple sources highlight the under as a strong play, noting the line appears inflated given the teams' styles. Historical trends show the under hitting frequently in UC Davis games against Big West opponents, and the total has gone under in many of their recent head-to-heads with Fullerton. UC Davis games this season average around 152 combined points, well below 156.

Fullerton's Offense Cools in Key Matchups

Despite leading the Big West in scoring, Fullerton's high-powered attack (83.2 PPG) often dips against disciplined defenses like UC Davis'. In conference play, tighter officiating and familiar opponents tend to reduce scoring outbursts. Fullerton's adjusted offensive efficiency ranks outside the top 200 nationally, suggesting vulnerability when pace is disrupted. In a conference known for competitive but not explosive scoring, expect defenses to shine tonight. The earlier 143-point total, combined with UC Davis' ability to control tempo and stifle opponents, makes the under 156 a solid bet. Look for a grind-it-out game in the mid-to-high 140s.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 156 (-110) 🍀Best of luck!

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