Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals (10:05am)

The pitching ERAs make this matchup look like an automatic Over, but there are several reasons the Under 9.5 has value. Colorado starts Gabriel Hughes, whose 6.54 ERA is ugly on the surface, but his underlying numbers are dramatically better. Hughes owns a 3.47 xERA and 3.86 FIP, while ranking in the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate and 91st percentile in average exit velocity. That suggests significant positive regression and gives him a better chance of limiting Washington than his traditional numbers indicate.

Washington's offense is also considerably weaker than it was earlier in the season. Since Luis Garcia was traded and James Wood went down, the Nationals rank just 24th in wRC+, while CJ Abrams has posted only a 77 wRC+ with a 32% strikeout rate since the deadline. Washington has now lost six of its last seven games and scored only one run in each of the previous two games of this series.

Jake Irvin is clearly the biggest concern for the Under, but Colorado is the type of opponent that gives him an opportunity to stabilize. Over the Rockies' previous 31 games, they rank 27th in MLB with an 82 wRC+. Wednesday's 13-run explosion stands out, but it came against a struggling Washington pitching combination that included a major-league debut and ultimately a position player pitching the final 1⅓ innings. It shouldn't automatically be treated as Colorado's new offensive baseline.

The blowout also quietly helps today's bullpen situation. Tanner Gordon gave Colorado seven innings Wednesday, while Washington was able to use a position player for the final 1⅓ innings once the game was decided. That kept both clubs from having to heavily tax their relief corps ahead of today's finale.

The weather is warm in Washington, but there isn't a significant wind boost, with winds expected around 7–10 mph. Ultimately, this Under is more about two inconsistent offenses than trusting either starter's ERA. I have this game handicapped at 9 runs giving us value on the Under.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 9.5 +100

🍀Best of luck!

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