Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates (9:05am)

This game is shaping up to be a low-scoring affair, and the line movement on the total supports that expectation. The Colorado Rockies have struggled mightily on the road, posting a dismal 16-47 record this season. They’ll be up against Paul Skenes, who’s been in dominant form recently—allowing just six runs over his last 16 innings. He’s well-positioned for another strong outing against a below-average Rockies lineup.

On the other side, Colorado will give the ball to top prospect McCade Brown, making his MLB debut after an impressive stint in Double-A Hartford, where he struck out 57 batters and held opponents to a .203 average. He could pose a challenge for a Pirates offense that hasn’t seen him before. While Pittsburgh’s bats have heated up recently, their season-long production tells a different story—they're averaging just 3.6 runs per game with a .234 team batting average.

Oddsmakers clearly aren’t giving Colorado much of a chance, but I expect a more competitive game than the lines suggest. It's also worth noting the Rockies haven’t been swept on the road since early July against Boston. Based on my projections, I have this game landing in the 5–6 run range. The total is u7.5 at the moment giving us value betting on the Under.

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Pick: Under 7.5 (-110)