Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves (1:10pm)

I like Under 9 in this afternoon’s Rockies-Braves matchup at Truist Park. Despite Colorado’s pitching change, there are several reasons this game can stay in the 4-3 or 5-3 range.

Martin Perez gives Atlanta a strong chance to suppress Colorado’s side of the total. Perez enters with a 3.12 ERA and has been particularly effective in August, posting a 1.80 ERA across five starts while allowing only one home run in 25 innings. His best pitch has been his changeup, against which hitters are batting just .153 with a .287 slugging percentage. The home/road split is another major positive. Perez owns a 2.02 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at Truist Park, considerably better than his road numbers. Colorado also has several vulnerable bats against left-handed pitching in today's lineup: Connor Norby carries a .658 OPS vs. LHP, Mickey Moniak .608 and Ezequiel Tovar .591. That gives Pérez a favorable path through the bottom half of the order.

The Rockies' late pitching change isn't necessarily enough to kill the Under. Ryan Feltner was scratched because of illness, so Zach Agnos is stepping into the bulk role. While Agnos doesn't have overwhelming underlying numbers, he recently threw two scoreless innings against Washington, and Atlanta has very little firsthand familiarity with him. This becomes more of a bullpen-style game for Colorado, allowing them to turn the lineup over to different looks rather than asking one struggling starter to survive six innings.

Colorado also has some of its better late-inning arms available. Jordan Romano and Jaden Hill are both working on three days' rest, giving the Rockies a chance to use their better relief options if this remains competitive into the later innings. Atlanta's bullpen is also in relatively good shape, with Didier Fuentes and Dylan Lee coming off two days of rest and Brent Suter especially fresh.

The weather shouldn't provide much assistance to the offenses either.

Conditions around Truist Park are approximately 85°F with only a 3 mph wind, so although it is warm, there isn't a significant wind blowing the baseball out.

Finally, there has been some market support toward a lower-scoring game. While 9 is still available, Action Network's current screen has the total down to 8.5, making Under 9 particularly valuable because we retain push protection if the game lands exactly on nine.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 9 (-120)

🍀Best of luck!

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