Implementing a consistently lucrative strategy of going against public sentiment, I've identified a compelling opportunity for us tonight. According to Sportsinsights, over 80% of the public is favoring the Over in the Cavaliers/Celtics game, likely influenced by the recent trend of the last five games going Over. However, my perspective diverges. We're dealing with two teams boasting top-10 defensive rankings, and I believe this will significantly impact tonight's game.
The Boston Celtics, ranked 4th defensively, concede a mere 109 points per game, while the Cavaliers' offense holds the 24th spot, scoring a modest 110.6 points per game. Defensively, the Cleveland Cavaliers are positioned at 7th, allowing just 110.7 points per game. Noteworthy is the fact that the Under has prevailed in the Celtics' last 13 games following instances where they allowed 100 points or more. Similarly, the Cavaliers exhibit a 5-2 Under record in their last 7 games when their opponent (Celtics) allowed 100 points or more in the previous game.
Despite the initial total opening at 226.5 at most offshore sportsbooks, I have reason to believe that sharp bettors have influenced a notable adjustment, leading to a full-point drop. This phenomenon, known as reverse line movement, aligns with my analysis. Personally, I've handicapped the total for this game at 218-221 points combined, presenting us with 3-4 points of value. Therefore, my recommendation is to take the Under.
Pick: Under 225.5 (-110)
🍀Best of luck!
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