Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets (1:10pm)

This game has all the makings to go over the posted total. The Reds are 32-19-1 to the OVER this season (63% overs) one of the highest over percentages in MLB. They’ve also cleared the total in 8 of their last 11 games and 7 of 9 vs. NL East opponents.

Nick Lodolo (0-1, 7.20 ERA, 1.53 WHIP in 3 starts) has allowed 3+ runs in every outing. All three of his starts have gone well over the total (combined run totals of 9–15+). His high walk rate creates instant traffic and extra-base damage. The Reds offense sits at 4.40 runs/game with big power hitters like Elly De La Cruz and others. They will feast on righties like Nolan McLean.

Noah McLean (2-3, 3.57 ERA) is coming off a dreadful outing and now faces a Reds lineup that hits RHP well. Mets are struggling vs. lefties (.223 BA, low OPS), and while they’ve been low-scoring lately, Lodolo’s numbers won’t intimidate them. Public betting consensus is heavily on the Under (76–79% of tickets), the line has held steady at 7.5 with no major move against the total. Weather is neutral (70-74°F, light winds blowing out) My numbers projects 8.2-8.8 runs.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Over 7.5 (-105)

🍀Best of luck!

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