Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros (5:10pm)

Sean Burke enters this game with a a 3.32 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 161 strikeouts across 149 innings, good for a 26.3% strikeout rate. His most recent outing was shaky from a command standpoint, but his season-long profile has been significantly better than that one start suggests. If Burke gets back to attacking the zone, he has the swing-and-miss ability to keep Houston in check.

The Astros have produced at an above-average level since the All-Star break, but they don’t necessarily need to be shut down completely for this Under to cash. A Burke outing allowing roughly 2-3 runs through five or six innings leaves plenty of room underneath an 8.5 total.

Ronel Blanco is the obvious risk, but Chicago still has to capitalize. Blanco has struggled since returning from elbow surgery, posting a 7.71 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 23.1 MLB innings. His recent Triple-A work was also poor, so this isn’t an Under based on dominant starting pitching on both sides. The angle is that Chicago doesn’t fully convert its opportunities into runs. In Monday’s series opener, the White Sox drew 10 walks yet managed only three total runs, showing how baserunners haven’t always translated into big innings.

The bullpens can significantly reduce the time frame for scoring. Houston’s relief corps managed to prevent any runs from being scored during the final 4⅓ innings on Monday, with Bryan Abreu concluding the game without allowing a single hit. Similarly, Chicago’s bullpen stabilized the situation after Anthony Kay’s struggles, with Trevor Richards delivering 2⅓ scoreless innings. If tonight’s starters can avoid a disastrous inning, both managers have ample late-game options to maintain a low-scoring game.

The biggest threat to the Under is Blanco’s current form, but 8.5 gives us some margin for error. Burke is the stronger starter in this matchup, Chicago showed poor conversion with runners on base in the opener, and both bullpens demonstrated the ability to limit late damage.

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Pick: Under 8.5 (-105)

🍀Best of luck!

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