Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs (5:05pm)

I love the Under 8 in tonight’s Crosstown Classic because this matchup has a much better pitching setup than the season-long numbers initially suggest.

The biggest reason is Shota Imanaga. He enters with a 3.74 ERA and an excellent 1.10 WHIP over 137.1 innings, but his recent form has been even more impressive. Over his last seven starts, Imanaga owns a 2.31 ERA with 38 strikeouts against only six walks in 39 innings. His command is important in a total this tight because he rarely gives opponents free baserunners. Statcast also has Imanaga allowing just a .302 xwOBA with a 35.5% hard-hit rate this season. If he has a quality start and keep the White Sox around two or three runs, we are in a very favorable position for the Under.

Luis Castillo will also be a huge key to this Under, and I believe his season ERA is making this total look more dangerous than his current form actually is. Castillo is coming off arguably his best start of the year, throwing seven scoreless innings while allowing only one hit and striking out 10 against Cincinnati. He generated a 49% whiff rate and 36% called-strike-plus-whiff rate in that outing, with his changeup and slider giving Cincinnati very little quality contact. That is a great sign after Chicago acquired him at the deadline. If Castillo carries even most of that form into tonight, the Cubs should have a much tougher time putting together crooked innings.

The Cubs are certainly capable offensively, but they haven't exactly entered this series at their best. They have recently lost three of four while being outscored 26-11, Pete Crow-Armstrong hit just .107 over the previous week, and Michael Busch has been going through a slump. Chicago's offense is dangerous when it strings together walks and extra-base hits, but Castillo's ability to generate swings and misses gives him a path to preventing those extended rallies.

The Wrigley Field conditions are also in our favor tonight! The current forecast is around 72 degrees with only a 3.4 mph WSW wind and no rain expected. At a ballpark where wind can dramatically change the run environment, a breeze that light removes one of the biggest concerns when betting an Under at Wrigley. We aren't dealing with the strong 15-20 mph wind blowing out that can turn routine fly balls into home runs.

There is plenty of power on both sides, but this Under doesn’t require either starter to be flawless. A 3-2, 4-2, or 4-3 final is enough to cash, while exactly eight runs gives us push protection. With Imanaga carrying a 2.31 ERA over his last seven starts, Castillo coming off seven scoreless innings, and Wrigley offering no meaningful wind boost to the offenses, I expect runs to be harder to come by than this total suggests.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 8 (-105)

🍀Best of luck!

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