Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays (9:15am)

I like the Under 8 in today’s Orioles-Rays matchup because this game has a good chance to be dictated by starting pitching and another round of inefficient offense. Baltimore sends Trevor Rogers to the mound with a 7-8 record, 4.21 ERA and 102 strikeouts, while Tampa Bay counters with Freddy Peralta, who has 121 strikeouts in 2026.

Rogers’ season numbers are relatively ordinary, but his recent performances give me confidence that he can keep Tampa Bay from putting together a big inning. In his last start against Minnesota, Rogers allowed only two runs on four hits over four innings, and on August 5 he struck out nine while allowing just three hits over six innings. That swing-and-miss ability is especially valuable against a Rays lineup that has shown it can get runners on base without necessarily converting those opportunities into runs.

We saw exactly that from Tampa Bay last night. The Rays finished just 3-for-13 with runners in scoring position and stranded 12 runners in a 4-3 extra-inning loss to Baltimore. Even with an additional inning, the two teams combined for only seven runs. Baltimore’s damage was also heavily dependent on isolated power, with Pete Alonso and Christian Encarnacion-Strand both hitting solo home runs. If those big swings turn into warning-track outs or strikeouts today, scoring opportunities could disappear quickly.

Peralta is obviously the biggest concern for this Under because his 5.33 ERA and 1.50 WHIP are much higher than what we are accustomed to seeing from him. However, his strikeout stuff remains intact. He has 121 strikeouts this season and recently settled down after a difficult opening inning against Oakland to deliver a quality start for Tampa Bay. Against a Baltimore lineup that can be reliant on home runs for its scoring, Peralta’s strikeout ability to gives us a path to limiting crooked innings even if he allows a few baserunners.

The key with the Under 8 is that neither starter has to be flawless. If Rogers can hold Tampa Bay around two or three runs and Peralta can keep Baltimore in that same range, we enter the later innings with plenty of room underneath the number. After these teams played a 4-3 game that required 10 innings Saturday night, I expect another relatively tight divisional matchup where scoring opportunities will be scarce. Take the Under!

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 8 (-120)

🍀Best of luck!

ExclusiveVipSports