Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays (3:10pm)

I like the Under 7.5 in this matchup because both starting pitchers are positioned to control the game, and Baltimore draws a particularly difficult matchup against Rays left-hander Ian Seymour.

Seymour has quietly settled into Tampa Bay’s rotation and enters this game in excellent form. He has allowed only three earned runs across 12 innings in August while striking out 16, including six innings of one-run baseball with seven strikeouts against Seattle in his last start. Since moving into the rotation, Seymour has also produced a 3.46 ERA and 3.09 FIP, showing that his recent success has been supported by the underlying numbers rather than simply good fortune.

The matchup makes Seymour even more appealing. Baltimore has struggled against left-handed pitching throughout the season, ranking near the bottom of baseball in both OPS and batting average against left-handed starters. Their season batting average against lefties sits around .235, which creates a significant advantage for Seymour. His combination of strikeouts and a 1.13 WHIP should make it difficult for Baltimore to string together the multiple baserunners usually necessary to push a game over a relatively low total.

On the other side, Kyle Bradish gives Baltimore a chance to suppress Tampa Bay's offense. Bradish carries a 3.69 ERA with 121 strikeouts over 127 innings, and his most recent start was better than the box score result suggests: he worked six innings against Texas without allowing an earned run, giving up five hits with zero walks. When Bradish is locating his sinker and slider, he can generate weak contact and keep the ball in the park which is exactly what is needed against a dangerous Rays lineup.

This looks like a matchup where six solid innings from both starters can put the Under in an excellent position entering the late innings. Seymour's matchup against Baltimore's lefty struggles is the strongest piece of the handicap, while Bradish's recent command and run prevention give Baltimore the pitching necessary to keep Tampa Bay from exploding offensively.

(2x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)

🍀Best of luck!

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