Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos (1:30pm)

80% of the Public on the Over! Smells like a burial this afternoon!

In the high-stakes world of NFL playoffs, the AFC Divisional Round matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High, has all the makings of a defensive slugfest. With the over/under set at 46 points, oddsmakers are anticipating a moderate-scoring affair, but a closer look at the teams strengths, weaknesses, injuries, and environmental factors suggests the total will land well below that mark.

Denver's Elite Defense: A Wall Against Explosive Plays

The Broncos boast one of the NFL's top defenses this season, allowing the fewest yards per game at just 278.2. This unit, anchored by a pass rush that led the league in sacks, is particularly adept at stifling quarterbacks like Josh Allen, who relies on big plays and mobility. Denver's red-zone efficiency is the best in the league at 42.6%, meaning opponents often settle for field goals instead of touchdowns once they cross midfield. At home, the Broncos have been even stingier, surrendering only 17.8 points per game. Buffalo's offense, while potent, has shown vulnerabilities against strong fronts. The Bills rank 31st in EPA allowed per designed run, a weakness Denver could exploit but the Broncos own rushing attack isn't elite, which might force both teams into pass-heavy scripts that play right into Denver's defensive hands. Expect Allen to face constant pressure, leading to hurried throws, sacks, and stalled drives.

Buffalo's Injuries and Short Week: Rust vs. Rest

The Bills are coming off a bruising wild-card win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, where they escaped 27-24 but lost key wide receivers Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis for the season. Allen himself is nursing a foot injury and took additional hits in that game, potentially limiting his scrambling ability a key component of Buffalo's scoring output. Veteran safety Jordan Poyer is also sidelined, weakening the secondary against Denver's efficient passing game led by Bo Nix. Compounding this is the scheduling dynamic: Buffalo faces a short week after their road victory, while the top-seeded Broncos enjoyed a bye, entering rested and prepared. This "rest vs. rust" factor favors Denver, allowing Sean Payton's squad to dictate a slower pace. The Bills' run game struggled in the wild-card round, with James Cook managing just 3.1 yards per carry against a stacked box.

Weather and Altitude: The Great Equalizers

January football in Denver is no picnic, and the forecast for kickoff adds another layer favoring the under. Expect daytime highs around 39-41°F dropping to 25-32°F by evening, with wind gusts up to 22 mph and a RealFeel temperature of 34°F. These cold, windy, and potentially slippery conditions often disrupt passing games and lead to conservative play-calling. Kicking becomes unreliable, and offenses lean on the run, which both teams defend well. Add in Denver's notorious altitude (5,280 feet), which fatigues visiting teams and affects ball flight. The Bills, coming from sea-level Orchard Park, may tire quicker, especially with injuries sapping their depth. Historical January games at Mile High frequently stay under totals due to these elements, and this matchup fits the profile perfectly.

(3x-Rated Members Only) Pick: Under 46 (-110)

🍀Best of luck!

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